Showing posts with label SW Florida real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SW Florida real estate. Show all posts
Friday, February 14, 2025
Friday, May 25, 2012
Florida’s housing market continues positive signs in April 2012
ORLANDO, Fla. – May 22, 2012 – Florida’s housing market had increased pending sales and higher median prices in April, along with a greatly reduced inventory of homes and condos for sale, according to Florida Realtors® latest housing data.
“Here in Florida, we’re seeing some strong numbers that show positive momentum for the state’s housing recovery and our economy,” said 2012 Florida Realtors President Summer Greene, regional manager of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Florida 1st in Fort Lauderdale. “Home prices continue to rise in many markets. Inventory is down to extremely low levels while pending sales are on the rise – almost 38 percent for single-family homes and 25 percent for townhomes and condos. It is not unusual to see multiple offers.
“Now the challenge will be for appraisals to catch up. Overall, we are very happy to see the market move in this direction and expect this trend to continue.”
Pending sales refer to contracts that are signed but not yet completed or closed; closed sales typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in April was $144,350, up 10.2 percent from the year-ago figure, according to data from Florida Realtors Industry Data and Analysis department, and vendor partner 10K Research and Marketing. The statewide median for townhome-condo properties was $108,000, up 16.1 percent over April 2011.
The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in March 2012 was $163,600, up 1.9 percent from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in March was $291,080; in Massachusetts, it was $267,500; in Maryland, it was $225,601; and in New York, it was $215,000.
The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less. Housing industry analysts note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.
Statewide sales of existing single-family homes totaled 17,544 in April, down slightly, 0.7 percent, compared to the year-ago figure. Looking at Florida’s year-to-year comparison for sales of townhomes/condos, a total of 9,765 units sold statewide last month, down 4.9 percent from those sold in April 2011. NAR reported the national median existing condo price in March 2012 was $165,200.
In April, there was a 5.8-month supply of single-family homes in inventory and a 5.7-month supply for townhomes/condos, according to Florida Realtors.
“The housing numbers for the state of Florida continue to signal recovery,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo. “Sales in 2012 are above where they were in 2011, a harbinger of a third straight year of improvement. More importantly, pending sales are up dramatically, and inventory is still falling. Financing constraints still mean that a significant percentage of these will not lead to closed sales, but with the numbers up, we are confident that closed sales will continue to rise.
“The increase in both median and average prices suggests that investors are having a strong impact on the market, soaking up lower priced inventory and causing buyers to move up the price ladder.”
The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.91 percent in April 2012, down from the 4.84 percent average during the same month a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.
To see the full statewide housing activity report, go to Florida Realtors website at www.floridarealtors.org, and click on the Research page; then look under Latest Housing Data, Statewide Residential Activity and get the April report. Or go to Florida Realtors Media Center at http://media.floridarealtors.org/ and download the April 2012 data report PDF under Market Data at: http://media.floridarealtors.org/market-data.
© 2012 Florida Realtors®
“Here in Florida, we’re seeing some strong numbers that show positive momentum for the state’s housing recovery and our economy,” said 2012 Florida Realtors President Summer Greene, regional manager of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Florida 1st in Fort Lauderdale. “Home prices continue to rise in many markets. Inventory is down to extremely low levels while pending sales are on the rise – almost 38 percent for single-family homes and 25 percent for townhomes and condos. It is not unusual to see multiple offers.
“Now the challenge will be for appraisals to catch up. Overall, we are very happy to see the market move in this direction and expect this trend to continue.”
Pending sales refer to contracts that are signed but not yet completed or closed; closed sales typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in April was $144,350, up 10.2 percent from the year-ago figure, according to data from Florida Realtors Industry Data and Analysis department, and vendor partner 10K Research and Marketing. The statewide median for townhome-condo properties was $108,000, up 16.1 percent over April 2011.
The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in March 2012 was $163,600, up 1.9 percent from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in March was $291,080; in Massachusetts, it was $267,500; in Maryland, it was $225,601; and in New York, it was $215,000.
The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less. Housing industry analysts note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.
Statewide sales of existing single-family homes totaled 17,544 in April, down slightly, 0.7 percent, compared to the year-ago figure. Looking at Florida’s year-to-year comparison for sales of townhomes/condos, a total of 9,765 units sold statewide last month, down 4.9 percent from those sold in April 2011. NAR reported the national median existing condo price in March 2012 was $165,200.
In April, there was a 5.8-month supply of single-family homes in inventory and a 5.7-month supply for townhomes/condos, according to Florida Realtors.
“The housing numbers for the state of Florida continue to signal recovery,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo. “Sales in 2012 are above where they were in 2011, a harbinger of a third straight year of improvement. More importantly, pending sales are up dramatically, and inventory is still falling. Financing constraints still mean that a significant percentage of these will not lead to closed sales, but with the numbers up, we are confident that closed sales will continue to rise.
“The increase in both median and average prices suggests that investors are having a strong impact on the market, soaking up lower priced inventory and causing buyers to move up the price ladder.”
The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.91 percent in April 2012, down from the 4.84 percent average during the same month a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.
To see the full statewide housing activity report, go to Florida Realtors website at www.floridarealtors.org, and click on the Research page; then look under Latest Housing Data, Statewide Residential Activity and get the April report. Or go to Florida Realtors Media Center at http://media.floridarealtors.org/ and download the April 2012 data report PDF under Market Data at: http://media.floridarealtors.org/market-data.
© 2012 Florida Realtors®
Monday, December 12, 2011
Market Recap December 12 2011
MARKET RECAP
We tend to view most situations from an optimist's perspective, because optimists are more likely to see solutions that pessimists overlook; therefore, optimists tend to be better problem solvers.
Optimism, we have found, is also usually rewarded. The housing recovery has taken longer than most of us would like, but the market is recovering, and the recovery will likely gain pace as we progress through 2012.
Mortgage delinquencies are one area of continued progress. TransUnion forecasts delinquencies of 60 days or more will peak at 6 percent of all mortgages during the first quarter of 2012, and then fall to 5 percent by year's end. This is actually a continuation of a longer-term trend that has been overlooked: delinquencies this year are expected to fall 7 percent, which follows a 7 percent decline in 2010.
The trend in the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index is also cause for optimism. According to the index, the number of improving housing markets expanded for a fourth-consecutive month, rising 37 percent to 41 in December from 30 in November. The index states that the expansion in both number and geographic diversity of markets is proof that markets continue to grow more heterogeneous; that is, more dependent on local factors than national ones. This is a point we've been making for the past six months.
The news on pricing was less upbeat. CoreLogic reports that house prices dipped nationally month-over-month in October. Year-over-year, prices have declined 3.9 percent, but only 0.5 percent when distressed properties are removed from the equation.
A recent report by Barclays Capital should help ease pricing concerns. According to Barclays, the housing market will be buoyed by improving job growth and by the fact that prices for non-distressed properties are stabilizing without government support. On price stabilization, Barclays housing analyst Stephen Kim writes, “[W]e are amazed at how little attention it [the recovery in non-distressed homes] has been getting from the media and the street.”
We, on the other hand, are less amazed. We've been hammering the point on stabilizing prices for months, but we also know that bad news always sells better than good news.
Speaking of good news, mortgage rates continue to hold steady and near multi-decade lows. We've noticed that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has trended lower most of this past week, which has been something of a surprise, given that the economic news, for the most part, has been positive.
Mortgage rates have been holding steady for the past month or so, but we think upward pressure is steadily building – mostly due to an improving economy and job growth (and for a reason we'll explicate below).
Economic Indicator
Release Date and Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Retail Sales(November)
Tues., Dec.13,8:30 am , et
0.3% (Increase)
Important. Consumers continue to spend more than sentiment measures suggest, thus portending higher economic growth.
Business Inventories(November)
Tues., Dec.13,10:00 am, et
0.5% (Increase)
Important. Careful inventory management coupled with incremental sales growth should lead to improved job growth.
Mortgage Applications
Wed., Dec. 14,7:00 am, et
None
Important. Refinance and purchase activity point to rising lending demand.
Import Prices(November)
Wed., Dec. 14,8:30 am , et
1.5% (Increase)
Important. Rising import-price inflation could pressure interest rates.
Producer Price Index(November)
Thurs., Dec. 15,8:30 am , et
All Goods: 0.1% (Increase)Core: 0.2% (Increase)
Important. Rising core prices (less food and energy) point to rising producer-price inflation.
Industrial Production(November)
Thurs., Dec.15,9:15 am , et
0.2% (Increase)
Important. Continued production growth will eventually stimulate lagging consumer sectors.
Consumer Price Index(November)
Fri., Dec. 16,8:30 am , et
All Goods: No ChangeCore: 0.2% (Increase)
Important. Lower gasoline prices have slowed consumer-price inflation.
HARP 2.0 and Supply and Demand
A few weeks ago, we wrote about changes in the Home Affordable Refinance Program, dubbed HARP 2.0. This latest incarnation of HARP will impact the supply-and-demand dynamics in the mortgage market, namely due to the removal of the 125-percent loan-to-value cap.
More borrowers will qualify for mortgage loans; that obviously means there will be more demand for mortgage loans. What's more, demand could increase sooner rather than later, particularly if borrowers who don't need HARP, but want to exploit today's low rates to avoid the possibility of a delay, ratchet up demand.
To be sure, HARP 2.0 will be a good deal for many mortgagors who have been unable to refinance because of diminished home equity. Many of these mortgagors will benefit, even if mortgages rates were to rise a full-percentage point or more.
Now, we're not forecasting a percentage point rise in rates when HARP 2.0 kicks into gear, but more demand does tend to raise costs, including the cost of mortgage financing. This is something borrowers who don't need HARP but who could take advantage of today's rates should think about, because many of them won't benefit if mortgage rates move significantly higher.
Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, Senior Loan Officer, Mutual of Omaha Bank.
We tend to view most situations from an optimist's perspective, because optimists are more likely to see solutions that pessimists overlook; therefore, optimists tend to be better problem solvers.
Optimism, we have found, is also usually rewarded. The housing recovery has taken longer than most of us would like, but the market is recovering, and the recovery will likely gain pace as we progress through 2012.
Mortgage delinquencies are one area of continued progress. TransUnion forecasts delinquencies of 60 days or more will peak at 6 percent of all mortgages during the first quarter of 2012, and then fall to 5 percent by year's end. This is actually a continuation of a longer-term trend that has been overlooked: delinquencies this year are expected to fall 7 percent, which follows a 7 percent decline in 2010.
The trend in the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index is also cause for optimism. According to the index, the number of improving housing markets expanded for a fourth-consecutive month, rising 37 percent to 41 in December from 30 in November. The index states that the expansion in both number and geographic diversity of markets is proof that markets continue to grow more heterogeneous; that is, more dependent on local factors than national ones. This is a point we've been making for the past six months.
The news on pricing was less upbeat. CoreLogic reports that house prices dipped nationally month-over-month in October. Year-over-year, prices have declined 3.9 percent, but only 0.5 percent when distressed properties are removed from the equation.
A recent report by Barclays Capital should help ease pricing concerns. According to Barclays, the housing market will be buoyed by improving job growth and by the fact that prices for non-distressed properties are stabilizing without government support. On price stabilization, Barclays housing analyst Stephen Kim writes, “[W]e are amazed at how little attention it [the recovery in non-distressed homes] has been getting from the media and the street.”
We, on the other hand, are less amazed. We've been hammering the point on stabilizing prices for months, but we also know that bad news always sells better than good news.
Speaking of good news, mortgage rates continue to hold steady and near multi-decade lows. We've noticed that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has trended lower most of this past week, which has been something of a surprise, given that the economic news, for the most part, has been positive.
Mortgage rates have been holding steady for the past month or so, but we think upward pressure is steadily building – mostly due to an improving economy and job growth (and for a reason we'll explicate below).
Economic Indicator
Release Date and Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Retail Sales(November)
Tues., Dec.13,8:30 am , et
0.3% (Increase)
Important. Consumers continue to spend more than sentiment measures suggest, thus portending higher economic growth.
Business Inventories(November)
Tues., Dec.13,10:00 am, et
0.5% (Increase)
Important. Careful inventory management coupled with incremental sales growth should lead to improved job growth.
Mortgage Applications
Wed., Dec. 14,7:00 am, et
None
Important. Refinance and purchase activity point to rising lending demand.
Import Prices(November)
Wed., Dec. 14,8:30 am , et
1.5% (Increase)
Important. Rising import-price inflation could pressure interest rates.
Producer Price Index(November)
Thurs., Dec. 15,8:30 am , et
All Goods: 0.1% (Increase)Core: 0.2% (Increase)
Important. Rising core prices (less food and energy) point to rising producer-price inflation.
Industrial Production(November)
Thurs., Dec.15,9:15 am , et
0.2% (Increase)
Important. Continued production growth will eventually stimulate lagging consumer sectors.
Consumer Price Index(November)
Fri., Dec. 16,8:30 am , et
All Goods: No ChangeCore: 0.2% (Increase)
Important. Lower gasoline prices have slowed consumer-price inflation.
HARP 2.0 and Supply and Demand
A few weeks ago, we wrote about changes in the Home Affordable Refinance Program, dubbed HARP 2.0. This latest incarnation of HARP will impact the supply-and-demand dynamics in the mortgage market, namely due to the removal of the 125-percent loan-to-value cap.
More borrowers will qualify for mortgage loans; that obviously means there will be more demand for mortgage loans. What's more, demand could increase sooner rather than later, particularly if borrowers who don't need HARP, but want to exploit today's low rates to avoid the possibility of a delay, ratchet up demand.
To be sure, HARP 2.0 will be a good deal for many mortgagors who have been unable to refinance because of diminished home equity. Many of these mortgagors will benefit, even if mortgages rates were to rise a full-percentage point or more.
Now, we're not forecasting a percentage point rise in rates when HARP 2.0 kicks into gear, but more demand does tend to raise costs, including the cost of mortgage financing. This is something borrowers who don't need HARP but who could take advantage of today's rates should think about, because many of them won't benefit if mortgage rates move significantly higher.
Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, Senior Loan Officer, Mutual of Omaha Bank.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Two Real Estate Reports Suggest Florida Rebound
CHICAGO – Nov. 17, 2011 – Two national studies – one from Realtor.com and one from Trulia – suggest that some Florida markets are poised for a real estate rebound.
“This is a positive trend for Florida,” says John Tuccillo, Florida Realtors chief economist. “While Trulia and Realtor.com aren’t completely accurate in home prices and sales – mainly because they base their numbers on only homes listed on their website – it’s useful to look at visitor behavior and note the trends. If Trulia says more visitors are doing a home search in the Miami market, for example, it probably follows that Miami is experiencing an upswing in demand.”
Realtor.com’s Top Ten Turnaround Report
In Realtor.com’s “Top Ten Turnaround Report,” six Florida cities were considered good bets for an upswing in sales. Realtor.com, which is owned by The National Association of Realtors®, says it created a formula to rank a city’s turnaround potential based on recent price appreciation, changes in inventory, median age of inventory, number of Realtor.com searches by visitors and area unemployment.
Realtor.com attributes the Florida cities’ success to year-over-year home price increases, reductions in inventory, lower unemployment rates and, in some cases, an upswing in international buyers.
Realtor.com’s turnaround list includes:
1. Miami: Ranked No. 1 in the report, Miami hit the top based on “a healthy inventory that is only half the size from a year ago,” a lower foreclosure rate than the national average, and an increase in condo sales.
2. Orlando: While No. 2, Realtor.com says Orlando had more home searches than any other city when compared to the total number of listings. It also had a significant drop in the number of foreclosures.
3. Fort Myers-Cape Coral: Median prices in Fort Myers-Cape Coral have increased year-over-year, foreclosures are down, inventory is lower and foreign buyers are attracted to the area’s real estate prices.
4. Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.
5. Fort Lauderdale: Inventory has decreased and prices have increased, says Realtor.com.
6. Sarasota-Bradenton: About one in 10 foreign buyers look in Sarasota-Bradenton for a home, Realtor.com says. Listing prices have increased and inventory has decreased.
7. Lakeland-Winter Haven: According to Realtor.com, the number of distressed sales has decreased significantly and prices have gone up.
8. Boise City, Idaho
9. Fort Wayne, Ind.
10. Ann Arbor, Mich.
Trulia’s Metro Movers Report
Trulia has debuted a new report that analyzed its home searches.
In one study, Trulia looked at the number of people who searched for housing in a city – including renters – and compared it to the number of city residents looking elsewhere for a home. An area with a high number of inbound searches and a low number of outbound searches, Trulia reasons, suggests an increased demand for housing.
According to the study, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area had six times more searches by inbound people than outbound people, landing it in the list’s No. 1 position, but four other Florida cities also made the top 10 list:
1. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota
2. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
3. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach
5. Cape Coral-Fort Myers
6. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach
7. Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
8. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
9. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
Trulia also looked at the Chicago and New York City markets to see where residents wanted to move. Three Florida cities ranked in the top 10 for Chicago residents: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 4), Cape Coral-Fort Myers (No. 6) and Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 10).
In New York City, five Florida cities made the list: Miami-Miami-Beach-Kendall (No. 2), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 3), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach (No. 5), Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach (No. 6) and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 7).
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
“This is a positive trend for Florida,” says John Tuccillo, Florida Realtors chief economist. “While Trulia and Realtor.com aren’t completely accurate in home prices and sales – mainly because they base their numbers on only homes listed on their website – it’s useful to look at visitor behavior and note the trends. If Trulia says more visitors are doing a home search in the Miami market, for example, it probably follows that Miami is experiencing an upswing in demand.”
Realtor.com’s Top Ten Turnaround Report
In Realtor.com’s “Top Ten Turnaround Report,” six Florida cities were considered good bets for an upswing in sales. Realtor.com, which is owned by The National Association of Realtors®, says it created a formula to rank a city’s turnaround potential based on recent price appreciation, changes in inventory, median age of inventory, number of Realtor.com searches by visitors and area unemployment.
Realtor.com attributes the Florida cities’ success to year-over-year home price increases, reductions in inventory, lower unemployment rates and, in some cases, an upswing in international buyers.
Realtor.com’s turnaround list includes:
1. Miami: Ranked No. 1 in the report, Miami hit the top based on “a healthy inventory that is only half the size from a year ago,” a lower foreclosure rate than the national average, and an increase in condo sales.
2. Orlando: While No. 2, Realtor.com says Orlando had more home searches than any other city when compared to the total number of listings. It also had a significant drop in the number of foreclosures.
3. Fort Myers-Cape Coral: Median prices in Fort Myers-Cape Coral have increased year-over-year, foreclosures are down, inventory is lower and foreign buyers are attracted to the area’s real estate prices.
4. Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.
5. Fort Lauderdale: Inventory has decreased and prices have increased, says Realtor.com.
6. Sarasota-Bradenton: About one in 10 foreign buyers look in Sarasota-Bradenton for a home, Realtor.com says. Listing prices have increased and inventory has decreased.
7. Lakeland-Winter Haven: According to Realtor.com, the number of distressed sales has decreased significantly and prices have gone up.
8. Boise City, Idaho
9. Fort Wayne, Ind.
10. Ann Arbor, Mich.
Trulia’s Metro Movers Report
Trulia has debuted a new report that analyzed its home searches.
In one study, Trulia looked at the number of people who searched for housing in a city – including renters – and compared it to the number of city residents looking elsewhere for a home. An area with a high number of inbound searches and a low number of outbound searches, Trulia reasons, suggests an increased demand for housing.
According to the study, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area had six times more searches by inbound people than outbound people, landing it in the list’s No. 1 position, but four other Florida cities also made the top 10 list:
1. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota
2. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
3. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach
5. Cape Coral-Fort Myers
6. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach
7. Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
8. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
9. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
Trulia also looked at the Chicago and New York City markets to see where residents wanted to move. Three Florida cities ranked in the top 10 for Chicago residents: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 4), Cape Coral-Fort Myers (No. 6) and Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 10).
In New York City, five Florida cities made the list: Miami-Miami-Beach-Kendall (No. 2), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 3), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach (No. 5), Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach (No. 6) and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 7).
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
NAR: Gradual recovery for housing and economy in 2012
ANAHEIM, Calif. – Nov. 15, 2011 – Although the housing market struggled to maintain an even footing in 2011, gradual improvement is expected in 2012 and beyond, according to projections at the 2011 Realtors® Conference & Expo.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), said home sales should be stronger. “Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back homebuyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently,” he said. “Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly stimulate the market when conditions improve.”
Yun projects growth in Gross Domestic Product to be 1.8 percent this year, then rising moderately at a rate of 2.2 percent in 2012. With job growth of 1.7 to 2.2 million next year, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.7 percent by the second half of 2012. Mortgage interest rates should gradually rise from recent record lows and reach 4.5 percent by the middle of 2012.
“Housing affordability conditions, based on the relationship between median home prices, mortgage interest rates, and median family income, have been at a record high this year,” Yun said. “Very favorable affordability conditions will dominate next year as well, which will probably be the second best year on record dating back to 1970. Our hope is that credit restrictions will ease and allow more homebuyers to take advantage of current opportunities.”
Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1 percent this year, and then rise another 4 to 5 percent in 2012. Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011.
Housing data
NAR says it is benchmarking its existing-home sales statistics, and it expects total sales to be lowered for recent years. However, it doesn’t expect many changes to previously reported percentage comparisons, median prices or the month’s supply of inventory. NAR expects to publish its improved measurement methodology soon.
“NAR began its normal process for benchmarking sales at the beginning of this year in consultation with government agencies, outside housing economists and academic experts,” NAR said in a release. “There will be no notable change to previous characterizations of the market in terms of sales trends, monthly percentage changes, etc.”
In the 2010 U.S. Census, the government stopped reporting home sales data, which NAR used as a benchmark. As a result, the association had to develop a new independent score to use as a baseline for its calculations. Preliminary data using the new benchmark will “undergo broad review shortly by professional economists and government agencies. After any issues that may surface in the review process are addressed, we will update monthly seasonal adjustment factors and publish revisions.”
Housing forecast
New-home sales are expected to be a record low 302,000 this year, rising to 372,000 in 2012. Housing starts are forecast to rise to 630,000 next year from 583,000 in 2011.
“Although a double-digit growth in new-home sales and housing starts sounds encouraging, the projections remain historically soft relative to long-term underlying demand,” Yun explained.
With falling inventory, the median home price should rise in 2012. “Home prices have yet to show a definitive stabilization pattern in most areas. Still, given an over-correction in prices, there likely will be moderate appreciation in 2012,” Yun said. “Once home prices turn positive on a sustained basis, consumer confidence will rise and help the broader economy to improve,” Yun added.
Richard Peach, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Board of New York, said the economy is under-performing. “Nearly two-and-a-half years since the end of ‘the great recession,’ the economy continues to operate well below its potential,” he said. “Among the significant structural impediments are the legacy of the housing boom and bust, and fiscal contrition at the state and local level.”
Peach said the current business cycle remains 7 percent below its peak and is longer than other recession cycles since 1953. He added the employment to population ratio is historically low, and there’s been a shift in the distribution of income, with corporate profits up strongly while employment compensation is down.
Peach believes there is a sizeable level of shadow inventory that will result in rising foreclosures. “My idea is to allocate certificates to 2.5 million service members who served in Afghanistan and Iraq that could be used as a downpayment on a foreclosed home in the Fannie or Freddie portfolio,” he said.
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), said home sales should be stronger. “Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back homebuyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently,” he said. “Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly stimulate the market when conditions improve.”
Yun projects growth in Gross Domestic Product to be 1.8 percent this year, then rising moderately at a rate of 2.2 percent in 2012. With job growth of 1.7 to 2.2 million next year, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.7 percent by the second half of 2012. Mortgage interest rates should gradually rise from recent record lows and reach 4.5 percent by the middle of 2012.
“Housing affordability conditions, based on the relationship between median home prices, mortgage interest rates, and median family income, have been at a record high this year,” Yun said. “Very favorable affordability conditions will dominate next year as well, which will probably be the second best year on record dating back to 1970. Our hope is that credit restrictions will ease and allow more homebuyers to take advantage of current opportunities.”
Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1 percent this year, and then rise another 4 to 5 percent in 2012. Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011.
Housing data
NAR says it is benchmarking its existing-home sales statistics, and it expects total sales to be lowered for recent years. However, it doesn’t expect many changes to previously reported percentage comparisons, median prices or the month’s supply of inventory. NAR expects to publish its improved measurement methodology soon.
“NAR began its normal process for benchmarking sales at the beginning of this year in consultation with government agencies, outside housing economists and academic experts,” NAR said in a release. “There will be no notable change to previous characterizations of the market in terms of sales trends, monthly percentage changes, etc.”
In the 2010 U.S. Census, the government stopped reporting home sales data, which NAR used as a benchmark. As a result, the association had to develop a new independent score to use as a baseline for its calculations. Preliminary data using the new benchmark will “undergo broad review shortly by professional economists and government agencies. After any issues that may surface in the review process are addressed, we will update monthly seasonal adjustment factors and publish revisions.”
Housing forecast
New-home sales are expected to be a record low 302,000 this year, rising to 372,000 in 2012. Housing starts are forecast to rise to 630,000 next year from 583,000 in 2011.
“Although a double-digit growth in new-home sales and housing starts sounds encouraging, the projections remain historically soft relative to long-term underlying demand,” Yun explained.
With falling inventory, the median home price should rise in 2012. “Home prices have yet to show a definitive stabilization pattern in most areas. Still, given an over-correction in prices, there likely will be moderate appreciation in 2012,” Yun said. “Once home prices turn positive on a sustained basis, consumer confidence will rise and help the broader economy to improve,” Yun added.
Richard Peach, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Board of New York, said the economy is under-performing. “Nearly two-and-a-half years since the end of ‘the great recession,’ the economy continues to operate well below its potential,” he said. “Among the significant structural impediments are the legacy of the housing boom and bust, and fiscal contrition at the state and local level.”
Peach said the current business cycle remains 7 percent below its peak and is longer than other recession cycles since 1953. He added the employment to population ratio is historically low, and there’s been a shift in the distribution of income, with corporate profits up strongly while employment compensation is down.
Peach believes there is a sizeable level of shadow inventory that will result in rising foreclosures. “My idea is to allocate certificates to 2.5 million service members who served in Afghanistan and Iraq that could be used as a downpayment on a foreclosed home in the Fannie or Freddie portfolio,” he said.
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
Monday, October 17, 2011
Market Recap Week of October 17, 2011
MARKET RECAP
We've reported frequently on the encouraging data on home prices. The most recent encouraging data comes courtesy of Zillow, which shows that home prices inched 0.1 percent higher in August, with the average home price moving to $172,600. Zillow's data also show that the national foreclosure rate dropped to 9.2 homes out of every 10,000 homes, down from 10.9 homes out of every 10,000 in 2010.
Unfortunately, the good vibes on pricing and foreclosures were tempered by a warning that foreclosures will accelerate once the controversial robo-signing imbroglio passes. In fact, Zillow believes foreclosure inventory will pressure home prices and that prices won't bottom until 2012 “at the earliest.”
It's possible we could see national average and median home prices fall. Locally, prices could just as easily fall, stagnate, or rise. In fact, a rise might be more in the offing for many local markets. After all, national data is skewed by a few regions – Nevada , Arizona , Central Florida and Central California . Overall, we still see prices firming and rising in many markets, though that trend might not be reflected in national numbers.
As for mortgage rates, we can say categorically that they have been rising nationally and locally since last Friday, thanks in part to an employment report that showed the economy created more jobs in September than most economists had expected. In many markets, rates were up 20 basis points on the 30-year fixed-rate loan. This shouldn't come as a surprise; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note – the foundation for long-term mortgages – has risen 35 basis-points over the past 10 days.
To be sure, mortgage rates could reverse course and return to the long-term down trend, but there is a real danger to a strategy predicated on returning to the long-term trend in a market that has been trending higher; that is the obvious: the short-term trend might not reverse.
Another danger is supply and demand. Falling mortgage rates do stimulate demand, but if supply isn't rising at an accommodating pace, there is no guarantee that an ultra-low mortgage rate will be filled. Loans, like all good and services, are rationed by price. If you can get a higher price for your product, you get it.
In short, if someone is satisfied with his rate, the best strategy is to ignore the daily vicissitudes and lock. Regret is a tough emotion to overcome, particularly in a market that is showing signs of wanting to move higher.
Economic Indicator
Release Date and Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Industrial Production(September)
Mon., Oct. 17,9:15 am, et
0.2% (Increase)
Important. The rising production trend is encouraging for the economic outlook.
Producer Price Index(September)
Tues., Oct. 18,8:30 am, et
All Goods: 0.4% (Increase)Core: 0.1% (Increase)
Important. Producer prices remain subdued and non-inflationary.
Home Builders Index(October)
Tues., Oct. 18,10:00 am, et
14 Index
Important. Activity remains at multi-decade lows, though some markets are showing increased activity.
Mortgage Applications
Wed., Oct.19,7:00 am, et
None
Important. The uptick in purchase applications could signal improved October home sales.
Consumer Price Index(September)
Wed., Oct.19,8:30 am, et
All Goods: 0.3% (Increase)Core: 0.1% (Increase)
Important. Consumer prices are pushing the Federal Reserve's upper-range target and could turn inflationary.
Housing Starts(September)
Wed., Oct.19,8:30 am, et
590,000 (Annualized)
Important. Starts remain at a three-year depressed level.
Existing Home Sales(September)
Thurs., Oct. 20,10:00 am, et
4.9 Million (Annualized)
Important. After surging in August, sales are expected to pull back to the longer-term trend.
Mortgage Market Debate
It's no secret that a lot of mortgage lending is in government-backed loans. Nationally, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA back nine in 10 new mortgages. The federal government is looking to pull back and see if more private investors and lenders can be lured into the market.
There are legitimate concerns with a prospective federal pull back. There is the possibility of reduced available credit, thus leading to fewer sales and lower home prices. We've already seen some reduction in volume in higher priced homes when limits on loans backed by Fannie and Freddie declined at the beginning of October.
There is also the concern that sellers will find that fewer potential buyers qualify to purchase their properties. Less liberal down payments and lower loan limits could also hamstring trade-up buyers who want to tap their home equity as a down payment for their new residence.
Here's the conundrum: If we went to return to a more market-driven lending environment, we have to attract private investment, which means rates would have to rise. Private lenders and investors require a greater return than public sources of funds. It's worth noting, though, that many private lenders are flush with money they could put to work. What's more, private lenders and investors will add diversity to the market, which it is currently lacking.
The point is, we can see the mortgage market changing. We can't say whether it will be a net positive in the short term, but we think it raises the uncertainly level enough for borrowers to seriously consider taking advantage of the mortgage market as it is today.
This Mortgage Matters Compliments of Patti Wilson,
Senior Loan Officer Mutual of Omaha Bank.
Email to: patti.wilson@mutualofomahabank.com
We've reported frequently on the encouraging data on home prices. The most recent encouraging data comes courtesy of Zillow, which shows that home prices inched 0.1 percent higher in August, with the average home price moving to $172,600. Zillow's data also show that the national foreclosure rate dropped to 9.2 homes out of every 10,000 homes, down from 10.9 homes out of every 10,000 in 2010.
Unfortunately, the good vibes on pricing and foreclosures were tempered by a warning that foreclosures will accelerate once the controversial robo-signing imbroglio passes. In fact, Zillow believes foreclosure inventory will pressure home prices and that prices won't bottom until 2012 “at the earliest.”
It's possible we could see national average and median home prices fall. Locally, prices could just as easily fall, stagnate, or rise. In fact, a rise might be more in the offing for many local markets. After all, national data is skewed by a few regions – Nevada , Arizona , Central Florida and Central California . Overall, we still see prices firming and rising in many markets, though that trend might not be reflected in national numbers.
As for mortgage rates, we can say categorically that they have been rising nationally and locally since last Friday, thanks in part to an employment report that showed the economy created more jobs in September than most economists had expected. In many markets, rates were up 20 basis points on the 30-year fixed-rate loan. This shouldn't come as a surprise; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note – the foundation for long-term mortgages – has risen 35 basis-points over the past 10 days.
To be sure, mortgage rates could reverse course and return to the long-term down trend, but there is a real danger to a strategy predicated on returning to the long-term trend in a market that has been trending higher; that is the obvious: the short-term trend might not reverse.
Another danger is supply and demand. Falling mortgage rates do stimulate demand, but if supply isn't rising at an accommodating pace, there is no guarantee that an ultra-low mortgage rate will be filled. Loans, like all good and services, are rationed by price. If you can get a higher price for your product, you get it.
In short, if someone is satisfied with his rate, the best strategy is to ignore the daily vicissitudes and lock. Regret is a tough emotion to overcome, particularly in a market that is showing signs of wanting to move higher.
Economic Indicator
Release Date and Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Industrial Production(September)
Mon., Oct. 17,9:15 am, et
0.2% (Increase)
Important. The rising production trend is encouraging for the economic outlook.
Producer Price Index(September)
Tues., Oct. 18,8:30 am, et
All Goods: 0.4% (Increase)Core: 0.1% (Increase)
Important. Producer prices remain subdued and non-inflationary.
Home Builders Index(October)
Tues., Oct. 18,10:00 am, et
14 Index
Important. Activity remains at multi-decade lows, though some markets are showing increased activity.
Mortgage Applications
Wed., Oct.19,7:00 am, et
None
Important. The uptick in purchase applications could signal improved October home sales.
Consumer Price Index(September)
Wed., Oct.19,8:30 am, et
All Goods: 0.3% (Increase)Core: 0.1% (Increase)
Important. Consumer prices are pushing the Federal Reserve's upper-range target and could turn inflationary.
Housing Starts(September)
Wed., Oct.19,8:30 am, et
590,000 (Annualized)
Important. Starts remain at a three-year depressed level.
Existing Home Sales(September)
Thurs., Oct. 20,10:00 am, et
4.9 Million (Annualized)
Important. After surging in August, sales are expected to pull back to the longer-term trend.
Mortgage Market Debate
It's no secret that a lot of mortgage lending is in government-backed loans. Nationally, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA back nine in 10 new mortgages. The federal government is looking to pull back and see if more private investors and lenders can be lured into the market.
There are legitimate concerns with a prospective federal pull back. There is the possibility of reduced available credit, thus leading to fewer sales and lower home prices. We've already seen some reduction in volume in higher priced homes when limits on loans backed by Fannie and Freddie declined at the beginning of October.
There is also the concern that sellers will find that fewer potential buyers qualify to purchase their properties. Less liberal down payments and lower loan limits could also hamstring trade-up buyers who want to tap their home equity as a down payment for their new residence.
Here's the conundrum: If we went to return to a more market-driven lending environment, we have to attract private investment, which means rates would have to rise. Private lenders and investors require a greater return than public sources of funds. It's worth noting, though, that many private lenders are flush with money they could put to work. What's more, private lenders and investors will add diversity to the market, which it is currently lacking.
The point is, we can see the mortgage market changing. We can't say whether it will be a net positive in the short term, but we think it raises the uncertainly level enough for borrowers to seriously consider taking advantage of the mortgage market as it is today.
This Mortgage Matters Compliments of Patti Wilson,
Senior Loan Officer Mutual of Omaha Bank.
Email to: patti.wilson@mutualofomahabank.com
Monday, September 26, 2011
Home Listing Prices Rising in Florida
ORLANDO, Fla. – Sept. 26, 2011 – Prices are rising in Florida.
Florida cities have had the largest year-over-year increases in average list prices, according to the latest real estate data from Realtor.com. Based on August data of 2.2 million listings in 146 markets, Florida cities make up nine of the top 10 places for highest year-over-year list price spikes.
Nationwide, the average list price is $320,325, up 2.36 percent year-over-year.
Here are the top 15 cities boasting the highest percentage of year-over-year increases in average list prices.
1. Miami
Average list price: $640,332
Year-over-year increase: 27.4%
2. Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla.
Average list price: $443,570
Year-over-year increase: 26.27%
3. Central-Fla. rural service area
Average list price: $405,809
Year-over-year increase: 19.41%
4. Punta Gorda, Fla.
Average list price: $267,066
Year-over-year increase: 16.37%
5. Macon, Ga.
Average list price: $193,520
Year-over-year increase: 15.98%
6. Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
Average list price: $466,785
Year-over-year increase: 15.86%
7. Naples, Fla.
Average list price: $713,087
Year-over-year increase: 15.13%
8. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Fla.
Average list price: $591,895
Year-over-year increase: 14.68%
9. Ocala, Fla.
Average list price: $193,360
Year-over-year increase: 12.07%
10. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
Average list price: $181,409
Year-over-year increase: 11.48%
11. Orlando, Fla.
Average list price: $319,419
Year-over-year increase: 10.56%
12. Portland-Vancouver, Ore.-Wash.
Average list price: $314,537
Year-over-year increase: 10.52%
13. Boise City, Idaho
Average list price: $212,588
Year-over-year increase: 10.43%
14. Springfield, Illinois
Average list price: $174,537
Year-over-year increase: 9.12%
15. Shreveport-Bossier City, La.
Average list price: $211,414
Year-over-year increase: 8.34%
Source: Melissa Dittmann Tracey, Realtor® Magazine Daily News
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
Florida cities have had the largest year-over-year increases in average list prices, according to the latest real estate data from Realtor.com. Based on August data of 2.2 million listings in 146 markets, Florida cities make up nine of the top 10 places for highest year-over-year list price spikes.
Nationwide, the average list price is $320,325, up 2.36 percent year-over-year.
Here are the top 15 cities boasting the highest percentage of year-over-year increases in average list prices.
1. Miami
Average list price: $640,332
Year-over-year increase: 27.4%
2. Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla.
Average list price: $443,570
Year-over-year increase: 26.27%
3. Central-Fla. rural service area
Average list price: $405,809
Year-over-year increase: 19.41%
4. Punta Gorda, Fla.
Average list price: $267,066
Year-over-year increase: 16.37%
5. Macon, Ga.
Average list price: $193,520
Year-over-year increase: 15.98%
6. Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
Average list price: $466,785
Year-over-year increase: 15.86%
7. Naples, Fla.
Average list price: $713,087
Year-over-year increase: 15.13%
8. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Fla.
Average list price: $591,895
Year-over-year increase: 14.68%
9. Ocala, Fla.
Average list price: $193,360
Year-over-year increase: 12.07%
10. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
Average list price: $181,409
Year-over-year increase: 11.48%
11. Orlando, Fla.
Average list price: $319,419
Year-over-year increase: 10.56%
12. Portland-Vancouver, Ore.-Wash.
Average list price: $314,537
Year-over-year increase: 10.52%
13. Boise City, Idaho
Average list price: $212,588
Year-over-year increase: 10.43%
14. Springfield, Illinois
Average list price: $174,537
Year-over-year increase: 9.12%
15. Shreveport-Bossier City, La.
Average list price: $211,414
Year-over-year increase: 8.34%
Source: Melissa Dittmann Tracey, Realtor® Magazine Daily News
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Market Recap end of August 2011
The woes of homebuilders and anyone dependent on home building continue. The July report on new home sales shows that the annual sales rate has fallen to 298,000 units, hitting a five-month low. The good news is that supply isn't expanding. In fact, only 165,000 homes are in inventory. This is a record low and a 6.6-month supply at the going sales pace.
Homebuilders face a cluster of problems: bargain-priced foreclosures; higher lending standards; and skittish buyers, many of whom have been further put off by the recent stock market sell-off. Mounting concerns of a double-dip recession and rising cancellation rates have only exacerbated homebuilder worries. The chief concern now is that builders could be forced to cut prices, something they've been fighting tooth-and-nail.
Despite the recent spat of bad news, home prices continue to hold their own, and in many instances are moving higher – at least month-over-month. The FHFA home price index for June increased 0.9 percent after posting 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent increases in May and April respectively.
However, does the slump in new and existing home sales portend falling home prices? We remain optimistic that prices will hold. People are understandably wary about big-ticket purchases, like a home, because of slow job growth and stagnating economic activity. But all have a reservation price (a price they will not sell below). Houses (that is, habitable houses) won't be given away, they'll be taken off market if the sales price doesn't exceed the reservation price.
Reservation prices could fall and the monthly price trend could reverse, of course. That said, we think most of the bad news is baked into the system, so we don't think there will be any heavy discounting. In short, we still think a home is a worthwhile investment in today's market.
Mortgages have also been holding a price trend. Bankrate reported that its weekly survey on rates posted another all-time low. It's worth noting, though, that after the survey was released, yields on the 10-year Treasury note spiked 10 basis points, which points to higher mortgage rates in the next survey.
A surfeit of negative news has kept mortgage rates low. This has lead many analysts to opine that ultra-low mortgage rates are the new norm. We think this is a dangerous way of thinking (which we'll explain below) and that it is still best to take advantage of rates unseen in over 50 years.
Economic Indicator
Release Date and Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Personal Income & Outlays(July)
Mon., Aug. 29,8:30 am, et
Income: 0.3% (Increase)Outlays: 0.5% (Increase)
Moderately Important. Income and outlay growth are sluggish, but both categories continue to post gains.
Pending Home Sales Index(July)
Mon., Aug. 29,10:00 am, et
90 Index
Important. July should hold gains posted in June, but recent data suggest some regression in August.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index(June)
Tues., Aug. 30,9:00 am, et
1.0% (Increase)
Moderately Important. Early summer sales prices have shown modest improvement.
Mortgage Applications
Wed., Aug. 31,7:00 am, et
None
Important. Purchase activity hit a 15-year low, which points to lower near-term home sales.
Factory Orders(July)
Wed., Aug. 31,8:30 am, et
0.8%(Increase)
Moderately Important. The yearlong trend in orders still suggests overall economic growth.
Productivity & Costs(2nd Quarter)
Thurs., Sept. 1,8:30 am, et
Productivity: 0.7% (Decrease)Costs: 2.6% (Increase)
Important. Falling productivity and rising costs are indicative of a sluggish labor market.
Construction Spending(July)
Thurs., Sept. 1,8:30 am, et
0.2% (Increase)
Important. Government and commercial spending are pacing any growth.
Employment Situation(August)
Fri., Sept. 2,8:30 am, et
Unemployment Rate: 9.1%Payrolls: 110,000 (Increase)
Very Important. Unexpected job strength (like in July) could move interest rates higher.
Is This the New Norm?
We've gone down the higher-inflation, higher-interest rate road many times in the past, only to find ourselves doubling back. There is an interesting trend occurring with banks, though, that could persuade us to go down it once again.
One of the more vocal criticisms of banks is that they haven't been lending as much as they should. There is some validity to the criticism; banks have been squirreling away a higher amount of reserves with the Federal Reserve, which has attenuated loan supply and, therefore, money supply, thus keeping inflation in check.
Data released by the Federal Reserve show this period of containment appears to be ending. In other words, excess bank reserves are leaking into the economy and money supply is growing. Because we operate in a fraction-reserve banking system, which means one dollar can be sufficiently leveraged to produce nine more, more reserves put to work can quickly raise inflation pressure.
This all might seem abstruse to the layperson unfamiliar with the intricacies of the Federal Reserve and fractional-reserving banking. All we are saying is that it is folly to write off price inflation and the possibility of higher mortgage rates, because there is no “normal” when it comes to financial markets.
Courtesy of Patti Wilson, Senior Loan Officer, Mutual of Omaha Bank
patti.wilson@mutualofomahabank.com
Monday, August 1, 2011
National Association of Realtors - Pending Home Sales Rise in June
NAR: Pending home sales rise in June
WASHINGTON – July 28, 2011 – Pending home sales increased in June following a wide swing down in April and then up in May, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Month-to-month activity increased in the West and South but declined in the Midwest and Northeast. However, all regions show strong double-digit gains from a year earlier.The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June from 88.8 in May, and is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 reading in June 2010, which was the low point immediately following expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there may be some increase in closed existing-home sales.“For the majority of transactions, the lag time between pending contacts to actual closings is one to two months. Therefore, the two consecutive months of rising activity should lead to overall improvement in closed sales in upcoming months,” he said. “Though a higher than normal cancellation rate can hold back final closing figures, it could well be that some past cancellations are nothing more than delayed buying decisions rather than outright cancellations.”Yun said tight credit and economic uncertainty have been constricting the market. “The best way to ensure a more solid recovery in housing is to simply return to normal, sound credit standards so more creditworthy homebuyers can get a mortgage,” he said.
“Washington also should not rock the boat with policy changes that would negatively impact affordable credit or otherwise increase the cost of buying or owning a home,” Yun added.
The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.4 percent to 68.9 in June but is 19.4 percent higher than June 2010. In the Midwest the index fell 3.7 percent to 79.7 in June but is 26.4 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 4.4 percent to an index of 99.2 and are 19.1 percent higher than June 2010. In the West the index rose 6.4 percent to 107.0 in June and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.
Existing-home sales this year are expected to total 5.0 million, slightly higher than 2010. Similarly, little change is forecast for aggregate home prices with several indicators, including NAR’s median prices, showing recent signs of stabilization.
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
WASHINGTON – July 28, 2011 – Pending home sales increased in June following a wide swing down in April and then up in May, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Month-to-month activity increased in the West and South but declined in the Midwest and Northeast. However, all regions show strong double-digit gains from a year earlier.The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June from 88.8 in May, and is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 reading in June 2010, which was the low point immediately following expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there may be some increase in closed existing-home sales.“For the majority of transactions, the lag time between pending contacts to actual closings is one to two months. Therefore, the two consecutive months of rising activity should lead to overall improvement in closed sales in upcoming months,” he said. “Though a higher than normal cancellation rate can hold back final closing figures, it could well be that some past cancellations are nothing more than delayed buying decisions rather than outright cancellations.”Yun said tight credit and economic uncertainty have been constricting the market. “The best way to ensure a more solid recovery in housing is to simply return to normal, sound credit standards so more creditworthy homebuyers can get a mortgage,” he said.
“Washington also should not rock the boat with policy changes that would negatively impact affordable credit or otherwise increase the cost of buying or owning a home,” Yun added.
The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.4 percent to 68.9 in June but is 19.4 percent higher than June 2010. In the Midwest the index fell 3.7 percent to 79.7 in June but is 26.4 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 4.4 percent to an index of 99.2 and are 19.1 percent higher than June 2010. In the West the index rose 6.4 percent to 107.0 in June and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.
Existing-home sales this year are expected to total 5.0 million, slightly higher than 2010. Similarly, little change is forecast for aggregate home prices with several indicators, including NAR’s median prices, showing recent signs of stabilization.
© 2011 Florida Realtors®
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Housing Starts Surge 9 Percent; Signal A Strong Fall Season
by Chris Brown on Wednesday, July 20, 2011 at 8:46am
Builders are busy once again.
According to the Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 453,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in June – a 9 percent spike from the month prior and the highest reading in 3 seasons.
A “Housing Start” is defined as a home breaking ground on new construction.
June’s reading is largest one-month jump since June 2009. The reading surprised Wall Street despite that the Homebuilder Confidence survey may have foreshadowed the results.
Monday, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builders are more confident about the future of the new home sales market, and forecast a large increase in sales over the next 6 months.
For buyers of new construction, the news is mixed. Rising confidence may mean that builders in Orlando are less willing to negotiate on upgrades and/or price, but rising construction levels add inventory to an already fragile market.
Adding to the nation’s home supply without a corresponding increase in buyer demand shifts negotiation leverage away from builders.
The Census Bureau also reported on Building Permits.
In June, permits for single-family homes rose by 1,000 units nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This, too, bodes well for housing because 89 percent of homes with permits start construction within 60 days.
Momentum should carry forward into fall.
If you’re buying new construction in Florida , ask your real estate agent about local home supply, and how the market is trending. With mortgage rates low and the fall buying season approaching, you may find some of your best deals in the next few weeks.
Builders are busy once again.
According to the Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 453,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in June – a 9 percent spike from the month prior and the highest reading in 3 seasons.
A “Housing Start” is defined as a home breaking ground on new construction.
June’s reading is largest one-month jump since June 2009. The reading surprised Wall Street despite that the Homebuilder Confidence survey may have foreshadowed the results.
Monday, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builders are more confident about the future of the new home sales market, and forecast a large increase in sales over the next 6 months.
For buyers of new construction, the news is mixed. Rising confidence may mean that builders in Orlando are less willing to negotiate on upgrades and/or price, but rising construction levels add inventory to an already fragile market.
Adding to the nation’s home supply without a corresponding increase in buyer demand shifts negotiation leverage away from builders.
The Census Bureau also reported on Building Permits.
In June, permits for single-family homes rose by 1,000 units nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This, too, bodes well for housing because 89 percent of homes with permits start construction within 60 days.
Momentum should carry forward into fall.
If you’re buying new construction in Florida , ask your real estate agent about local home supply, and how the market is trending. With mortgage rates low and the fall buying season approaching, you may find some of your best deals in the next few weeks.
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