Protecting Against AI Voice Scams

Protecting Against AI Voice Scams

Buyers Among Those Anxiously Awaiting Rate Cuts

Buyers Among Those Anxiously Awaiting Rate Cuts

Understanding the Basics of RE Property Appraisals

Understanding the Basics of RE Property Appraisals: A property appraisal is needed when mortgage financing is used to buy residential real estate. It acts as a market value reference point for buyers and current owners.

Important Terms to Understand Homebuying

Important Terms to Understand Homebuying

FSBO Sellers Regret Not Having an Agent

FSBO Sellers Regret Not Having an Agent

FHFA: 2024 Conforming Loan Limits Rise by $40K

FHFA: 2024 Conforming Loan Limits Rise by $40K

Note to Seniors: The Kids Don’t Want Your House

Note to Seniors: The Kids Don’t Want Your House

A Very Positive Sign on the Housing Front

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of May 25, 2015

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MARKET RECAP A Very Positive Sign on the Housing Front We have a slightly different take on the world than most market commentators. Most commentators focus on consumption as the driving force behind the market. We focus more on production. To be sure, everything that is produced is produced to be consumed itself or to be used to produce something for final consumption. But consumption is always preceded by production. You have to produce before you can consume. For this reason, we put a little more weight on housing starts – production – than most. We were encouraged to see that housing starts blew past most economists' estimates in April. Specifically, starts rose to 1.135 million on an annualized rate. This is the highest monthly rate of starts in many years. More good news is found when you dig deeper into the data. The important single-family segment posted at 733,000 starts, 16.7% higher than in March. Permits, which portend future starts, rose 3.7%. We expect to see starts maintain this elevated level through the summer months. Granted, the surge in starts was partly attributable to downtime in March due to lousy weather. That said, the surge is more than weather driven. There is legitimate rising demand for new homes. This is reflected in home builder sentiment, which continues to maintain a 50-or-higher reading. The latest survey shows builder sentiment posted at 54 in May. Anything above 50 is positive. This is another reason we expect starts to maintain these elevated levels. A new home sale precedes an existing home sale. Existing home sales were disappointing, but not egregiously so. Sales were down 3.3% to 5.04 million on an annualized rate in April. Limited supply remains the bugaboo, particularly in the starter market. Young people still find it difficult to grasp the bottom rung. We remain confident, though, that entrepreneurial activity will eventually rectify this problem.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
New Home Sales (April)	Tues., May 26, 10:00 am ET	490,000 (Annualized)	Important. The pick up in starts points to stronger new home sales through the summer season.
Mortgage Applications	Wed., May 27, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Rising rates have taken some steam out of purchase activity, but activity should pick up when borrowers realize higher rates are the new normal.
Pending Home Sales Index (April)	Thurs., May 28, 10:00 am, ET	1.0% (Increase)	Important. The uptrend in contracts points to rising sales activity heading into summer.
Gross Domestic Product (1st Quarter 2015)	Fri., May 29, 8:30 am, ET	1.0% (Annualized Decrease)	Important. Contracting economic activity in the first quarter is one important reason the Fed will not move to raise interest rates.

 

Why the Fed Doesn't Really Matter at This Point Here we are in the waning days of May and it appears highly unlikely the Federal Reserve will move to raise the federal funds rate in June. At the beginning of the year, June was the month most everyone pointed to for the first increase in nearly 10 years. We were skeptical then, and we repeatedly stated our skepticism in subsequent months. Our skepticism was well founded. In the latest policy meeting minutes (from late April) officials said in the most explicit terms yet that they're unlikely to raise the fed funds rate in June. After watching the economy stumble through the winter, many at the meeting were doubtful the criteria for a rate increase would be met. The fed funds rate is supposed to have a cascade effect. Once it starts to rise, all other rates eventually rise too. But as we know, longer-term interest rates have been rising without prompting from the Fed. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note frequently posts above 2.25% these days. The rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan is frequently quoted above 4%. We think investor sentiment has changed. Investors are no longer willing to buy bonds – Treasury bonds in particular – that offer a negative real yield (a yield that does not compensate for inflation). Though the yield on all bonds and notes in the U.S. is nominally positive, many fail to maintain purchasing power over time when inflation is factored in. Consider it this way: If you earn 1% on your savings and consumer price inflation is running at 2%. After a year, you're 1% in the hole. You've lost purchasing power. Investors have been willing to put up with negative real interest rates because the Fed was continually driving interest rates lower through quantitative easing. The Fed stopped quantitative easing in October (though it continues to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds into new bond purchases.) Investors know the Fed won't drive yields any lower. Last month, we warned that markets can change, and change in a hurry. That has certainly happened with the sharp rise in interest rates in general and mortgage rates in particular. Could we see 3.75% on the 30-year fixed-rate loan a month from now? Anything is possible, but what's possible isn't the same as what is probable. Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank.

A Federal Reserve World, And We're All Living in It

Keeping you Updated on the Market
For the week of April 6, 2014

MARKET RECAP A Federal Reserve World, And We're All Living in It When the conversation turns to monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, the natural reaction is for eyes to glaze over. This is understandable. In the past, monetary policy and the Fed were supporting players who impinged little on the day-to-day activity in the housing and mortgage markets. That's hardly the case today. Over the past few years, since the 2009 recession, the Fed has morphed into a leading player. Therefore, we have no choice but to follow the Fed. “You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you,” is a quote attributed to Russian revolutionary Leon Trosky. We can modify Trosky's quote to say, “We might not be interested in the Federal Reserve, but the Federal Reserve is interested in us.” For this reason, we need to be interested in the Fed, which is why we spend considerable space on Fed commentary. Its policies directly influence home prices and mortgage rates. Now, it appears the Fed is backing off raising interest rates sooner than later. A couple weeks ago, we mentioned that new Fed Chair Janet Yellen had overtly hinted that interest rates would begin rising sometime in 2015. We speculated by mid-July. We were even more confident that 5% on the 30-year fixed rate loan was likely by end of this year. Indeed, mortgage rates rose – in fits and spurts – through most of March. The latest survey from Bankrate.com shows the national average on the 30-year loan at 4.54%. Freddie Mac's survey has the 30-year loan at 4.41%. Both are the highest they've been since late January. That said, we're rethinking our position. This past week, the Fed had what you could call a “wait-a-minute” moment. Fed Chair Yellen hedged her previous commentary, adding we will need stimulus for “some time.” This suggests that the economy has yet to gain sufficient traction, and appears unlikely to do so in the near future. In other words, 5% on the 30-year loan isn't quite the done deal that it seemed a couple weeks back. Since the recession ended, economic growth and job growth have remained stubbornly sluggish. A recent commentary from the Cleveland Branch of the Federal Reserve offers some insight into why this is: insufficient investment. Many economists focus on consumption as the main driver of the economy. Unfortunately, they under-weigh the importance of production. The fact is that we all have to produce in order to consume. We work first (produce), get paid, and then consume (credit not withstanding). Production is predicated on investment: We need tools (or capital) to produce. With the Fed pushing back raising interest rates, lower mortgage rates could prevail longer than we initially expected at the beginning of the year. Of course, the one caveat is that if job growth, investment, and consumption unexpectedly pick up, the Fed could signal a new direction, which would again alter interest-rate expectations.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Consumer Credit (February)	Mon., April 7 3:00 pm, ET	$12 Billion (Increase)	Important. Rising student loans outstanding could be a negative for the entry-level home market.
Mortgage Applications	Wed., April 9, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Purchase applications continue to inch higher, but no meaningful trend has been established.
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Minutes	Wed., April 9, 2:00 pm, ET	None	Moderately Important. The Fed is expected to reiterate its commitment to wrap up tapering by the end of the year.
Producer Price Index (March)	Fri., April 11 8:30 am, ET	All Goods: 0.1% (Increase) Core: 0.1% (Increase)	Moderately Important. Inflation at the producer level remains sedate and won't move interest rates.

 

A More Accommodating Market Than We Think One of the more prevalent complaints since the housing-market bubble burst in 2009 is how difficult it has become to get a mortgage loan. Compared to the early-to-mid-2000s, you could say that's true. The reality is – from a historical perspective – that the mortgage markets is more accommodating than many people think. This point was driven home in a recent Wall Street Journal article, which basically stated that getting a loan really isn't so tough. This is a point worth driving home to our clients. To be sure, the additional paperwork and verification required today compared to the recent past isn't something anyone particularly enjoys, but it's not unreasonable either. Last week, we explicated the upside of a housing market lead by mortgage-financed purchases. The good news is that the reality of obtaining a mortgage is easier than the wide-spread perception, which is why it's important to change the wide-spread perception. We're likely preaching to the choir on these points, but sometimes its worthwhile to do a little preaching to drive home an obvious point that isn't obvious to everyone.

Florida’s housing market continues positive signs in April 2012

NAR:

April existing-home sales up, prices rise again.

ORLANDO, Fla. – May 22, 2012 – Florida’s housing market had increased pending sales and higher median prices in April, along with a greatly reduced inventory of homes and condos for sale, according to Florida Realtors® latest housing data.

“Here in Florida, we’re seeing some strong numbers that show positive momentum for the state’s housing recovery and our economy,” said 2012 Florida Realtors President Summer Greene, regional manager of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Florida 1st in Fort Lauderdale. “Home prices continue to rise in many markets. Inventory is down to extremely low levels while pending sales are on the rise – almost 38 percent for single-family homes and 25 percent for townhomes and condos. It is not unusual to see multiple offers.

“Now the challenge will be for appraisals to catch up. Overall, we are very happy to see the market move in this direction and expect this trend to continue.”

Pending sales refer to contracts that are signed but not yet completed or closed; closed sales typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in April was $144,350, up 10.2 percent from the year-ago figure, according to data from Florida Realtors Industry Data and Analysis department, and vendor partner 10K Research and Marketing. The statewide median for townhome-condo properties was $108,000, up 16.1 percent over April 2011.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in March 2012 was $163,600, up 1.9 percent from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in March was $291,080; in Massachusetts, it was $267,500; in Maryland, it was $225,601; and in New York, it was $215,000.

The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less. Housing industry analysts note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.

Statewide sales of existing single-family homes totaled 17,544 in April, down slightly, 0.7 percent, compared to the year-ago figure. Looking at Florida’s year-to-year comparison for sales of townhomes/condos, a total of 9,765 units sold statewide last month, down 4.9 percent from those sold in April 2011. NAR reported the national median existing condo price in March 2012 was $165,200.

In April, there was a 5.8-month supply of single-family homes in inventory and a 5.7-month supply for townhomes/condos, according to Florida Realtors.

“The housing numbers for the state of Florida continue to signal recovery,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo. “Sales in 2012 are above where they were in 2011, a harbinger of a third straight year of improvement. More importantly, pending sales are up dramatically, and inventory is still falling. Financing constraints still mean that a significant percentage of these will not lead to closed sales, but with the numbers up, we are confident that closed sales will continue to rise.

“The increase in both median and average prices suggests that investors are having a strong impact on the market, soaking up lower priced inventory and causing buyers to move up the price ladder.”

The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.91 percent in April 2012, down from the 4.84 percent average during the same month a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

To see the full statewide housing activity report, go to Florida Realtors website at www.floridarealtors.org, and click on the Research page; then look under Latest Housing Data, Statewide Residential Activity and get the April report. Or go to Florida Realtors Media Center at http://media.floridarealtors.org/ and download the April 2012 data report PDF under Market Data at: http://media.floridarealtors.org/market-data.

© 2012 Florida Realtors®

Housing Crisis to End Soon!

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.
Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.
However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.
Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.
Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”
In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.
While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.
Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generation actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

Two Real Estate Reports Suggest Florida Rebound

CHICAGO – Nov. 17, 2011 – Two national studies – one from Realtor.com and one from Trulia – suggest that some Florida markets are poised for a real estate rebound.

“This is a positive trend for Florida,” says John Tuccillo, Florida Realtors chief economist. “While Trulia and Realtor.com aren’t completely accurate in home prices and sales – mainly because they base their numbers on only homes listed on their website – it’s useful to look at visitor behavior and note the trends. If Trulia says more visitors are doing a home search in the Miami market, for example, it probably follows that Miami is experiencing an upswing in demand.”
Realtor.com’s Top Ten Turnaround Report

In Realtor.com’s “Top Ten Turnaround Report,” six Florida cities were considered good bets for an upswing in sales. Realtor.com, which is owned by The National Association of Realtors®, says it created a formula to rank a city’s turnaround potential based on recent price appreciation, changes in inventory, median age of inventory, number of Realtor.com searches by visitors and area unemployment.

Realtor.com attributes the Florida cities’ success to year-over-year home price increases, reductions in inventory, lower unemployment rates and, in some cases, an upswing in international buyers.

Realtor.com’s turnaround list includes:

1. Miami: Ranked No. 1 in the report, Miami hit the top based on “a healthy inventory that is only half the size from a year ago,” a lower foreclosure rate than the national average, and an increase in condo sales.
2. Orlando: While No. 2, Realtor.com says Orlando had more home searches than any other city when compared to the total number of listings. It also had a significant drop in the number of foreclosures.
3. Fort Myers-Cape Coral: Median prices in Fort Myers-Cape Coral have increased year-over-year, foreclosures are down, inventory is lower and foreign buyers are attracted to the area’s real estate prices.
4. Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.
5. Fort Lauderdale: Inventory has decreased and prices have increased, says Realtor.com.
6. Sarasota-Bradenton: About one in 10 foreign buyers look in Sarasota-Bradenton for a home, Realtor.com says. Listing prices have increased and inventory has decreased.
7. Lakeland-Winter Haven: According to Realtor.com, the number of distressed sales has decreased significantly and prices have gone up.
8. Boise City, Idaho
9. Fort Wayne, Ind.
10. Ann Arbor, Mich.

Trulia’s Metro Movers Report

Trulia has debuted a new report that analyzed its home searches.

In one study, Trulia looked at the number of people who searched for housing in a city – including renters – and compared it to the number of city residents looking elsewhere for a home. An area with a high number of inbound searches and a low number of outbound searches, Trulia reasons, suggests an increased demand for housing.

According to the study, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area had six times more searches by inbound people than outbound people, landing it in the list’s No. 1 position, but four other Florida cities also made the top 10 list:
1. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota
2. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
3. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach
5. Cape Coral-Fort Myers
6. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach
7. Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
8. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
9. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford

Trulia also looked at the Chicago and New York City markets to see where residents wanted to move. Three Florida cities ranked in the top 10 for Chicago residents: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 4), Cape Coral-Fort Myers (No. 6) and Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 10).

In New York City, five Florida cities made the list: Miami-Miami-Beach-Kendall (No. 2), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 3), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach (No. 5), Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach (No. 6) and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 7).

© 2011 Florida Realtors®

Market Recap November 14, 2011

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of November 14, 2011
MARKET RECAP
If we were to survey the landscape to see if people rate the decline in housing prices as either a curse or a blessing, we are sure most would say curse. After all, most homeowners have suffered a loss of equity over the past five years.
However, there is an upside to the decline in home prices, particularly for first-time homebuyers and owners looking to trade up, and that's affordability. According to financial data provider Fiserv, the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced single-family home is 40 percent cheaper than it was five years ago, falling to $700 from $1,140.
Lower prices are really the only way to remedy a supply glut. Watching an asset's price fall is unpleasant, to be sure, but prices fall only so far and the glut clears, and then prices generally rise.
For example, Miami was one of the most overbuilt metropolitan regions and suffered serious price deflation. But the glut in Miami appears to have cleared, thanks to lower prices stimulating more demand. In the third quarter of 2011, Miami home sales jumped 51 percent from a year ago. What's more, prices are again on the rise: the average sales price in Miami for a single-family home has risen 19 percent year-over-year.
It is more informative to focus on local numbers than it is to focus on national numbers. The National Association of Realtors reports that the national median single-family home price slipped 4.7 percent year-over-year to $169,500 in the third quarter. That said, the NAR's national median price really doesn't mean much to any specific local market.
The bottom line for us is that we've seen enough evidence of markets clearing to suggest more markets will resemble Miami in 2012. Fiserv, though expecting some price weakness over the next few months, expects most major markets to post significant price gains in the second half of 2012.
What will financing rates look like in 2012? We thought mortgage rates would be higher this year than in 2010; that hasn't been the case. The Federal Reserve has plainly stated that it is buying long-term securities in order to hold long-term borrowing rates low. It can be silly to fight the Fed.
Then again, markets can be potent forces. Consider this past week: news that another Mediterranean country, Italy , is close to insolvency did little to move interest rates or mortgage rates. In other words, investors weren't rushing into U.S. Treasury securities. In fact, Treasury rates and mortgage rates held steady for the week.
When the Greek crisis occurred, Treasury rates and mortgage rates dropped perceptibly. The fact mortgage rates hardly moved with the latest crisis suggests markets might be less willing to accept ultra-low rates in exchange for a haven from risk.


Economic Indicator
Release Date and Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Producer Price Index(October)
Tues., Nov. 15,8:30 am, et
All Goods: 0.2% (Decrease)Core: No Change
Important. Underlying producer price inflation is easing but remains at elevated levels.
Retail Sales(October)
Tues., Nov. 15, 8:30 am , et
No Change
Important. The long-term sales trend suggests consumers are more optimistic than confidence measures state.
Mortgage Applications
Wed., Nov. 16,7:00 am, et
None
Important. Purchase activity continues to post steady (and encouraging) gains.
Consumer Price Index(October)
Wed., Nov. 16,8:30 am, et
All Goods: 0.1% (Decrease)Core: No Change
Important. A decrease in CPI will relieve pressure for interest rates to rise.
Home Builder Index(November)
Wed., Nov. 16,10:00 am, et
18 Index
Important. Gains in homebuilder stocks point to growing builder confidence.
Housing Starts(October)
Thurs., Nov 17,8:30 am, et
605,000 (Annualized)
Important. More regions are experiencing a rising level of starts.

Learn from the Past, But Focus on the Future
This is advice we try to pass onto our clients. It's important to learn from the past, but it's just as important to focus on the future.
What we've learned from the past is to avoid an asset whose short-term growth rate has far exceeded its historical average annual growth rate. That's not what we have today with housing. We have an asset class – residential real estate – that has reverted to historical norms and is priced to appreciate going forward.
This is a difficult concept for many people to accept. We naturally anchor to the recent past, but doing so can mislead. In 2006, many people thought home prices could only go up; in 2011, many people think home prices can only go down. What we can learn from the past is that trends don't last forever. Buying assets people are selling, and selling assets people are buying, can be very profitable.
We've been saying for the past year that residential real estate is priced to be profitable. Our belief hasn't changed, which is why we continue to say real estate financed with a mortgage loan will be one of the better performing assets over the next decade.
Courtesy of Patti Wilson, Mutual of Omaha Bank. (239) 357-0739

Sanibel/Captiva Ten Year Real Estate Market Analysis

CLICK TO ENLARGE GRAPHS Attached are two sets of bar graphs: One for single family homes, the other for condominiums. The top graph shows the number of closed sales each year, since 2001. The bottom graph shows the average closed sales price for each of those years. For 2010, it is for the number sales and the average closed sales price, through August 11th.

Number of Closed Sales. For both homes and condos, the peak in the number of sales was reached in 2004/2005. In 2006, the number of sales dropped precipitously by about 42%. Since that time, the number of sales has remained fairly steady. However, we do note that the number of home sales in 2010 should be about equal to 2009 (and the three previous years), since we're about 7.5 months into the year and the seasonal sales are behind us. However, condo sales seem to have picked up quite a bit. We are in mid-August, 2010, and we are only 8 sales short of 2009 sales. As you can see, condo sales over the past four years dropped further than the single family home sales, so we needed this portion of our market to make a rebound - of sorts.

Average Sale Prices. The average sale price of SF homes continued to surge upward into 2007, even though the number of sales had slowed in 2006. The same is true for condominiums, with average sales price rising through 2006, even though the number of sales had dropped, starting in that year. When we look at the rise and fall of the average sale prices, it shows that for single family homes, the increases from 2001 through 2007 were at an average of 10.6% per year. For the three years since, the average price declines were at an average of 11% per year - almost exactly the same rate. No precipitous rise or fall, which we feel speaks strongly of the Sanibel/Captiva market. On the condominium side, the average rise in sales price was 11.4% per year and the average decline was 9.4%. Again, no precipitous rise or fall in these average sales prices.

To see everything thats for sale on Sanibel and Captiva please visit my website at http://www.sanibelhomeseeker.com/