Easing into 2015

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of January 5, 2015

---

MARKET RECAP Easing Into 2015 We like where home price are headed. That is, they are easing. They have assumed a more steady and sustainable rate of growth. Recent price data from Black Knight supports our contention. Black Knight follows completed transactions in more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. For October, prices were up 0.1%, on average. Year over year, they were up 4.5%. This is much closer to historical growth rates. Mortgage lending rates are also easing into 2015. The 30-year fixed-rate loan is still regularly quoted below 4%, which is no surprise. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hovers around 2.2%. This is nearly 100 basis points less than where it was a year ago. The 10-year note is showing no inclination to move higher. Mortgage rates are also showing no inclination to move higher. Unfortunately, homes sales are easing into 2015 at too languid a pace. In November, existing homes sales sank 6.1% to 4.93 million units at an annualized rate. The number of units sold on a monthly basis has yet to pick up pace. We are still at the same annualized rate we were at this time last year. As for new home sales, they too, are easing into 2015. November new home sales were down 1.6% in November, to an annualized rate of 428,000 units. As with existing home sales, the sales pace is on par with where we were a year ago. Home sales had been showing some life going into the fourth quarter, but the readings on November have been a disappointment. We were expecting better. That said, we still like the longer-term outlook on both housing and mortgage financing. Yes, sales are flat, but the continued gains in economic growth and employment will prove salutary. (This is a theme we've pounded on frequently over the past six months.) Gears will eventually mesh and sales will move higher. Financing available to a wider swath of the population will help. Lending – mortgage and consumer – is heading in the right direction. Lenders are more willing to make loans, and consumers are more willing to take them. That's a sign of growing confidence in the economy. We were one of the few voices promoting housing and mortgage lending in the dire days of 2009. We were proven correct: Housing indeed recovered. These aren't dire days by any stretch of the imagination, though sometimes they are frustrating days. The good news is that housing is as poised as it has been in years to lead the economy forward. The funk will be broken.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Jan. 7, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Activity remains low, which points to slow sales growth in early 2015.
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Minutes	Wed., Jan. 7, 2:00 pm, ET	None	Important. Expect more Fed governors to express an interest in tightening monetary policy.
Consumer Credit (November)	Thurs., Jan. 8, 3:00 pm, ET	$13.5 Billion (Increase)	Moderately Important. Rising credit use is reflective of easing credit standards.
Employment Situation (December)	Fri., Jan. 9, 8:30 am, ET	Unemployment Rate: 5.8% Payrolls: 228,000 (Increase)	Very Important: Continued strong job growth increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve altering its interest-rate policies.

 

The Stock Market and Housing Nothing exists in a vacuum. All markets are interconnected to some degree. Last week, we discussed stocks and housing. Which is the preferable asset? The reality is that the two are not mutually exclusive. It's not an “either/or” scenario. What's more, one can influence the other, and frequently does. Stock market losses can lead to decreased housing demand, or to increased housing demand. Housing can have the same impact on stock prices. We saw falling home prices lead to falling stock prices in 2008. When housing values plummeted, so did stock prices. Through late 2007 to early 2009, the S&P 500 stock market index lost more than half its value. Interestingly, though, when stock values sank after the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000, home prices, on average, rose. Stocks have been on a strong run since early 2009. The S&P 500 has nearly tripled in price. This has no doubt produced a “wealth effect” that has helped the housing recovery. When people feel wealthier – as they do when they see the value of their investments rise – they are more willing to spend. This includes spending on housing. That said, the stock market is on a six-year bull run. That's long as bull runs are concerned. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see a retreat in stock prices in 2015. If stock prices retreat, could this lead to falling home prices? Or could it lead to rising home prices? If stock prices were to retreat, we think the latter scenario – continued rising housing prices – is more likely. We say that because homes are much more reasonably priced today compared to 10 years ago. That said, it will be worthwhile to keep an eye on the stock and housing markets in 2015. Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank

The Year That Was; The Year That Will Be

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of December 29, 2014

---

MARKET RECAP The Year That Was; The Year That Will Be Our 2014 outlook for the housing and mortgage markets wasn't perfect, but it was close. At the beginning of the year, we thought we would see a slowdown in home-price appreciation. That's been the case when you look at the national numbers. The rate of appreciation today compared to a year ago has slowed appreciably. The market has returned to single-digit year-over-year gains. This is good news, because we're returning to historical – and sustainable – appreciation rates. Twelve months ago we also thought we'd see a pick up in the labor market and in economic growth. That, too, has occurred. The economy continues to generate 200,000-or-more new jobs each month. This is no surprise when you consider that the economy itself has picked up pace and is growing at a rate unseen for nearly eight years. Lest we puff out our chest too much, mortgage rates were our big miss. That lending rates are this low given current job growth and economic activity seems implausible. Surely, strong growth would lead to rising rates, but it hasn't. Mortgage rates are lower today than they were a year ago. We were calling for 5% on the 30-year fixed-rate loan heading into the waning days of 2014. We are nowhere near that; sub-4% on the 30-year loan is the going rate. As for the future, we like what we see. We think price appreciation will continue to moderate in more markets, though we think price appreciation will prevail. Overall, the market will continue to push ahead. We are confident housing prices will continue to move forward because the economy will continue to move forward. Reasonable estimates have U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growing just above 3% in 2015. Based on these estimates, we think job creation will continue at a robust pace – at least at a pace of 200,000+ new jobs per month through the first half of next year. Whether rising economic activity will lead to more sales activity is tougher to discern. We think it will... if we see more interest in the lower-price market segment. There is still a dearth of activity among the younger demographics. If younger buyers return, then 2015 could turn out to be the best year in sales volume since before the 2009 recession. But could rising mortgage rates spoil the party? They could, though given recent statements , the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to see rates rise. Therefore, we think rates will remain muted through at least the first quarter of 2015. Then again, we offer a caveat: Markets are anticipatory entities. Rates will start moving higher long before the Fed officially begins to raise rates. Scuttlebutt moves markets. A year ago, we were bullish on housing, and we were right to be so. Our stance hasn't change, and we don't expect it will for some time. Bottom line: we like this market, and we remain bullish.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October)	Tues., Dec. 30, 9:00 am, ET	4.5% (Year-Over-Year Increase)	Important. Price growth is trending lower, and it should continue to do so into 2015.
Consumer Confidence Index (December)	Tues., Dec. 30, 10:00 am, ET	94 Index	Important. Rising confidence points to sustainable economic growth.
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Dec. 31, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Purchase activity remains muted, but new government initiatives could spur demand.
Pending Home Sales (November)	Wed., Dec. 31, 10:00 am, ET	103.5 Index	Important. Sales remain flat, and will likely remain flat into early 2015.

 

Real Estate or Stocks? The question of real estate or stocks was recently presented by CNBC. Unfortunately, they didn't get the answer right because they didn't get the question right. They compared residential owner-occupied real estate with publicly traded stocks. The two are not alike: one is an investment and one isn't. Though frequently referred to as an investment, residential owner-occupied real estate is really an asset. There is a distinction. An investment is expected to generate cash flow. An asset that is not an investment doesn't generate cash flow. Nevertheless, both can appreciate. That said, residential real estate can be an investment, and frequently is. If it is bought as rental property, it will generate periodic cash flow. It will also generate terminal cash flow, at the end of the holding period, such as when bought to flip. Returning to CNBC, they compared home prices to an S&P composite stock index dating back to 1890. Stock prices have increased 2.03% on average annually since then. Home prices have increased 33 basis point annually. It appears stocks win. The comparison is misleading. If the comparison were residential real estate investments – rentals and flips – real estate would compare much more favorably. When treated properly as an investment, residential real estate bought to rent holds up well compared to stocks. So residential real estate or stocks? It depends. If you need a home in which to live, the long-term return won't be as good as a broad-based index of stocks. Then again, we all need a place to live. The good news is that maintained owner-occupied real estate appreciates over time. The same can't be said for most other assets – cars, clothes, furniture, and jewelry. As for rent, it always goes up. The right answer is that it can be worthwhile to own residential real estate as an abode and as an investment. And, yes, it can also be worthwhile to own stocks.

Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank

Do Lower Oil Prices Lead to Higher Housing Demand?

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of December 8, 2014

---

MARKET RECAP Do Lower Oil Prices Lead to Higher Housing Demand?  The question is intriguing, given the steep decline in oil and gasoline prices over the past couple months. After all, less money spent on gasoline, the more money that can be spent elsewhere. Housing is elsewhere.  CoreLogic recently tackled the oil/housing question in a blog post by one of its senior economist Molly Boesel. The quick answer is that it appears that lower oil prices can lead to higher housing demand. A few variables come into play, though: number of miles driven; the actual price of gasoline; and for certain homeowners, the price of oil for heating fuel.  Number of miles driven and gasoline prices are most interesting. Data show that the lower gasoline prices fall, the more buyers are willing to move from urban centers into higher-priced homes. The key is that consumers need to believe that lower gasoline prices are sustainable over the long haul. The longer gas prices fall, or hold lower levels, the more willing consumers are to buy a home, particularly a suburban home.   Predicting oil prices, though, is as difficult as producing mortgage rates, maybe more so. Oil prices can hold low levels for an extended time, as in the 1990s. But oil prices are frequently spiky, and the spikes can be quite volatile. Oil priced at $65/barrel in one year can soon be $140/barrel the next.  In short, we are not banking on oil prices holding these low levels. But if they do, the good news is that housing is likely to be a beneficiary. As for good news in the present, mortgage purchase applications continue to trend higher.  The Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index was up again last week, posting a 3% increase. Purchase activity has been gradually ratcheting higher over the past month. We are seeing more purchase activity despite a slight decrease in mortgage credit availability.  This suggests more buyers are entering the market, and they are getting credit.  Going forward, sustained lower oil prices would be nice, and so would a sustained rise in purchase application activity. The former gives consumers more money, the latter signifies the return to a more normalized lending market.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Dec. 10, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Purchase activity continues to trend higher and portends rising overall housing sales.
Import Prices (November)	Thurs., Dec. 11, 8:30 am, ET	1.5% (Decrease)	Moderately Important. Lower oil prices will continue to depress the import-price index.
Retail Sales (November)	Thurs., Dec. 11, 8:30 am, ET	0.2% (Increase)	Moderately Important. Despite lower energy prices, sales in total dollars are rising. The good news is that more dollars are flowing to bigger-ticket items.
Producer Price Index (November)	Fri. Dec. 12, 8:30 am, ET	0.4% (Decrease)	Moderately Important.  Falling producer prices ensure interest rates will continue to hold today's low levels.

 

Where Do We Go From Here?  We're near the time of the year when people begin to gaze into their crystal ball. What should we expect for 2015? Bill McBride at CalculatedRiskBlog.com gathered estimates from a number of difference sources. So far, nothing is out of the ordinary. Most prognosticators see the recent past extending into the future. New home sales estimates range between 498,000 and 620,000 units on an annualized rate for 2015. (The NAR estimate is on the high end.) Total home starts range between 1.056 million and 1.3 million units on an annualized rate. (The NAR again offers the high-end estimate.)  On the price front, nearly everyone has throttled back price-appreciation expectations for next year. Estimates range between 2.4% and 5.2% annual price increases at the national level. (CoreLogic offers the high-end estimate.) This is no surprise. We've been saying since the beginning of 2014 that price appreciation will decelerate.  We expect it to continue to decelerate to within the range most analysts expect. This is, after all, a normalized range based on historical trends.  As for mortgage rates in 2015, CalculatedRiskBlog doesn't say.  But we see the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate loan hovering between 4.0% and 4.5% for the first quarter of 2015.  After that, it is hard to tell. Rates will depend on economic growth, job growth, wage rates, and inflation. If they are mostly up after the first three months, the Federal Reserve will start to talk up interest rates, which will lead to rates actually rising. Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank

The Big View.

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of December 1, 2014

---

MARKET RECAP The Big View The holidays are a nice respite. Things slow down a bit, which allows us to stand back and take in the big picture. We like what we see, because the big picture includes steady improvement in housing. As we reported last week, housing sales are trending higher. In addition, more sales are being financed with a mortgage. That we are seeing more purchase applications is a sign of more owner-occupied buyers. These buyers have always been the key drivers of the housing market. Recent trends in home prices point to more buyer interest and more inventory from which to choice. On the pricing front, S&P/Case-Shiller's closely followed 20-city price index rose 0.3% month over month for September. Year over year, the index is up 4.9%. This is the slowest pace of year-over-year price growth since October 2012. This is actually good news because we are seeing the pace of price appreciation return to historical norms, and historical norms are sustainable norms. That said, price appreciation is still found in most local markets. Of the 20 markets in Case-Shiller's index, 18 showed price gains for the month. We expect home prices to continue to appreciate in most markets Case-Shiller follows. We say that because we remain confident in the economic outlook. Fortunately, many consumers apparently share our perspective. Consumer confidence , overall, remains encouraging. Though down slightly in November, confidence has been on the rise through most of 2014. Better yet, consumers remain upbeat on the outlook for job creation. The latest data from the Conference Board show more people view the job market favorably. This, in turn, points to another favorable employment report next week. (Look for another month of 200,000-or-more new jobs for November.) The positive data on jobs, housing, and mortgage lending over the past six months gives us even more reason to be thankful this time of year. The good news is that we don't expect this sense of gratitude to abate any time soon.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending (October)	Tues., Dec. 2, 10:00 am, ET	0.5% (Increase)	Important. Rising residential spending points to rising home sales in coming months.
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Dec. 3, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Purchase activity is on the rise, which is an important development for the owner-occupied market.
Labor Productivity & Costs (3rd Quarter 2014)	Wed., Dec. 3, 8:30 am, ET	Productivity: 1.7% (Increase) Costs: 0.6% (Increase)	Moderately Important. Productivity outpacing costs is a positive for future wage growth.
Employment Situation (November)	Fri., Dec. 5, 8:30 am, ET	Unemployment Rate: 5.7% Payrolls: 230,000 (Increase)	Very Important. Strong job growth points to sustained housing growth.

 

The Best of Both Worlds   The economy continues to hum along. What's more, it continues to hum along at a higher pitch than most economists had expected. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services – was revised up to an annual growth rate of 3.9% in the third quarter. The consensus estimate called for GDP to be revised to show 3.2% growth. Within the GDP data, the trends in private investment were particularly encouraging. Both nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment ratcheted higher. This is good news because more investment today leads to more consumer spending tomorrow. We're not particularly surprised that economic growth is picking up. After all, the economy has been producing new jobs at the rate of 200,000+ per month for most of 2014. On the other hand, interest rates are a surprise. When economic growth ratchets higher, so, too, do interest rates. This time around is different, though. Interest rates continue to remain subdued. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note continues to hover around 2.3%. This is the low-end of the range that has prevailed through 2014. At the same time, mortgage rates remain low. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to vibrate around 4%. We have rising GDP growth coupled with low interest rates. What's more, growth should continue to rise, while rates should remain low. We say that because consumer-price inflation remains very subdued. So, we have the best of both worlds – strong growth and low lending rates. This unique paradigm suggests housing should get off to a strong start in 2015. Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank.

Will Job Growth Start Pushing Interest Rates Higher?

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of November 17, 2014

---

MARKET RECAP Will Job Growth Start Pushing Interest Rates Higher? The economy continues to manufacture employment at a brisk pace: Payroll jobs advanced by 214,000 in October. This marks the ninth-consecutive month of 200,000+ job gains. Other positives from the October employment report include the unemployment rate, which declined to 5.8%. Better still, the composition of the workforce is improving. The prime working age group – people in their 20s and 30s – is growing again. This developing trend bodes particularly well for housing. After all, we're all waiting for millennials to finally participate in the housing recovery. At the beginning of the year, we speculated that a strong employment trend would lead to higher mortgage rates. That hasn't been the case. But in our defense, our speculation was based on Federal Reserve guidance. The Fed had initially set an unemployment rate target of 6.5% before it would consider raising interest rates. We're obviously well below that rate, yet the Fed is showing no signs of raising rates soon. Fed officials still believe the economy is too weak and job growth too sluggish to raise rates. It's interesting that the Fed remains cautious. The fact is that the economy is on track to add 2.74 million jobs this year. This means 2014 would be the best year for job growth since 1999. Despite the upbeat data on jobs, mortgage rates drifted slightly lower over the past week: Bankrate.com's survey has the 30-year fixed-rate loan averaging 4.13%. Freddie Mac has the 30-year loan averaging 4.01%. Low rates and strong employment gains, yet overall mortgage activity remains subdued. The MBA's refinance index decreased 0.9% last week. The purchase index increased, but only by 1%. The MBA did report positive news on new-home sales. The MBA estimates sales increased by 8.5% in October to an annual rate of 461,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, the MBA estimates that there were 36,000 new home sales in October, a 12.5% increase from September sales of 32,000. The downside to this week's data is that a market dichotomy persists: Job grow and low mortgage rates are driving growth in the upper levels of the housing market. Tight credit, on the other hand, still impedes entry-level growth. We are encouraged, though. With more young people finding employment, we should see more growth in the lower echelons of the housing market in the coming year.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Home Builder Sentiment Index (November)	Tues., Nov. 18, 10:00 am, ET	55 Index	Important. Sentiment remains positive, but has not improved in recent months.
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Nov. 19, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Activity remains flat, but job growth points to more activity in coming months.
Housing Starts (October)	Wed., Nov. 19, 8:30 am, ET	1.03 Million Units (Annualized)	Important. Gains have stalled, but starts continue to hold above one million.
Existing Home Sales (October)	Thurs., Nov. 20, 10:00 am, ET	5.1 Million (Annualized)	Important. Sales continue to hold above five million, but show little inclination to move much higher.

 

Does Economic Growth Matter? The short and quick answer is “it depends.” When pundits discuss the economy, they usually speak of gross domestic product (GDP). You'll frequently read that GDP is growing at a 3% annual rate, or some similar number. Financial markets are encouraged when GDP grows at a higher rate, and discouraged when it grows at a lower rate. The Federal Reserve certainly focuses on GDP and will adjust interest rates based on GDP growth. In that respect, GDP growth impacts our business. But in other respects, GDP doesn't really matter. GDP is an aggregated national number. It's a measure of all the goods and services produced domestically. But like in real estate, a number taken from the economy as a whole can be meaningless to any local economy. For example, what occurs in Silicon Valley can have little relationship to what occurs in the Bakken oil shale fields of North Dakota. One local economy could grow, while the other could shrink. A national GDP number would likely be meaningless to either market. What most of us really care about is the specific data in our neck of the woods. The businessperson rightly establishes his or her own network of information concerning a particular venture in a particular market. Only that businessperson will know what type of information he or she needs in order to succeed. Most likely, that information won't be based on national numbers. So don't let the national data overly influence your mood or real estate market outlook. What occurs in our backyard is what matters most. Article Courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank

Post-Election Fallout: What does it mean?

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of November 10, 2014

---

MARKET RECAP Post-Election Fallout: What Does It Mean? A good way to alienate just about everybody is to talk politics. Sometimes, though, you have to. Politics matters. That said, our intention isn't to pass judgment; it's merely to vet the past and gauge the future. As for the past, the last time we experienced an election outcome similar to Tuesday's occurred in 1994. Democrat Bill Clinton was president when the Republicans took control of the House and Senate. From a business perspective, 1994 lead to prosperous times. From 1994 though the end of the Clinton presidency in January 2001, the economy moved steadily ahead. What's more, it moved ahead at a brisk pace. Five and six percent annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was the norm. Over those years, the unemployment rate steadily declined to a low of 4% from over 6%. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 , nearly tripled. Over the same period, new home sales climbed to over 800,000 units annually from 600,000 units. Existing home sales increased to nearly 5.2 million units annually from just over 3.8 million units. As for mortgage rates, they were nearly double what they are today. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.9% in 1995 and 8.05% in 2000. Despite what seemed to be high lending rates, the MBA's purchase mortgage index doubled over that time. (This is why we frequently downplay the importance of low lending rates when juxtaposed to growth.) Of course 2014 isn't 1994. The past never repeats in detail. 1994 also ushered in the beginning of a technology and productivity revolution driven by the Internet. Those variables won't be repeated. This isn't to say that the political climate at the time didn't encourage growth. It appeared to do just that. One thing is for certain: the purse strings were much looser 20 years ago than they are today. The loan-to-deposit ratio – a measure of banks' willingness to lend soared to 1.05 from 0.85 during the Clinton presidency. Strong economic growth encouraged more rational risk-accepting behavior, which materialized in continually rising loan volume. Rational risk-accepting behavior is less prevalent today. A couple weeks ago, we mentioned how former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke was unable to refinance his home. Bernanke had recently stepped down as Fed chair. Technically, he was unemployed, even though he was earning more money speaking and writing than he was as Fed chair. The Bernanke story is a one-off anecdote, but we know that lenders (and regulators) are still too risk averse. Risk averse behavior is reflected in today's low loan-to-deposit ratio. Let's hope that changes post election. To be sure, partisanship and acrimony will always exist in politics. But if past proves to be prologue, the partisanship and acrimony will be tolerable if Democrats and Republicans can set the table for a repeat of the 1994-2000 economic era.

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Nov. 12, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Recent rate increases have slowed refinance activity. Purchase activity continues to lag.
Retail Sales (October)	Fri., Nov. 14, 8:30 am, ET	0.1% (Increase)	Moderately Important. Declines in furnishings and building material sales are reflective of muted home sales.
Import Prices (October)	Fri., Nov. 14, 8:30 am, ET	1.1% (Decrease)	Moderately Important.Falling oil prices will help hold consumer-price inflation in check.
Consumer Sentiment (November)	Fri., Nov. 14, 9:55 am, ET	86.5 Index	Moderately Important. Sentiment remains optimistic, with more consumers expecting stronger wage growth.

 

Will Interest Rates Ever Rise? We suspect one day they will, but we doubt that day is imminent. We've done an about-face on interest rates compared to our outlook at the beginning of the year. Back in January, we thought the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would be approaching 5% by now. That hasn't been the case. Today, it appears 5% lies somewhere on the distant horizon. We say that because the Federal Reserve has affirmed that it has no intention of raising the federal funds rate (the important rate banks lend short-term to each other). What's more, the Fed continues to plow money from maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities into new issues. Though quantitative easing (QE) officially ended last month, the Fed continues to support the mortgage market. We are still looking at a very accommodating low-rate monetary environment. At the same time, consumer-price inflation remains muted. This means the Fed has the leeway to hold interest rates low. (The Fed had offered a 6.5% unemployment rate and 2% annual inflation as guideposts before raising rates. The Fed has certainly disregarded the former, with the unemployment rate now below 6%.) Maybe interest rates will rise when GDP growth hits 6% annually and the unemployment rate hits 4%, as it did 15 year ago. If that drives the rate on the 30-year loan up to 6%, so be it. We'll take that trade-off any day. Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank.

Better Pricing Driving More Sales

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of November 3, 2014

---

MARKET RECAP Better Pricing Driving More Sales We've frequently mentioned that a slowdown in home-price appreciation would help drive sales volume. So far, our thesis has proven correct. New home sales surged to 467,000 units on an annualized rate in September. This was the best monthly display since July 2008. Discounting by home builders was a key factor in driving volume. The median price of a new home dropped 9.7% to $259,000 in September. Before the decline, the year-over-year median price was trending higher. But now the median new-home price is actually 4% lower than it was this time last year. New-home prices should stabilize going forward. Supply remains muted, with 207,000 new homes on the market. This means that supply relative to sales is at a reasonable 5.3 months. It appears existing-home sales might start trending higher with new-home sales. The pending home sales index was up 0.3% in September. This isn't a monumental increase, but it does point to another monthly gain in existing-home sales for October. The year-over-year trend in the index is another subtle plus. It had spent most of 2014 in the red but is now back in the black with a 1.0% gain. As for home prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows they were down in 12 of the 20 cities the index follows. In aggregate, this translates to a 0.1% index decline. This marks the fourth-consecutive monthly decline, which drives the year-over-year gain down to 5.6% compared to 6.7% in July. The downward trend will likely persist: Zillow projects the year-over-year gain will drop to 4.7% when Case-Shiller reports September numbers. Continued improvement in gross domestic product (GDP ) growth should keep home sales moving forward through the end of the year. GDP growth decelerated in the third quarter, falling to 3.5% on an annualized rate, compared to the second quarter's 4.6% annualized rate. That said, 3.5% is respectable, and still beat the consensus estimate for 3.1% annualized growth. What's more, GDP growth at the current level should keep monthly job growth above the coveted 200,000 level. Now, we just want to see an uptick in purchase-mortgage activity. Last week's numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association weren't terribly encouraging. Purchase volume was down 5.0% for the October 24 week despite the fact rates remain low: sub-4% is still regularly quoted on the 30-year fixed-rate loan. What's more, rates are showing little inclination to move materially higher. The question is, will mortgage rates remain sedated now that the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative easing?

 

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending (September)	Mon., Nov. 3, 10:00 am, ET	0.7% (Increase)	Important. The trend in residential construction spending points to stable housing activity.
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Nov. 5, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Low purchase activity points to muted home-sales growth.
Employment Situation (October)	Fri., Nov. 7, 8:30 am, ET	Unemployment Rate: 5.9% Payrolls: 235,000 (Increase)	Very Important. Continual strong job growth will pull forward the Fed's schedule for raising interest rates.
Consumer Credit (September)	Fri., Nov. 7, 3:00 pm, ET	$13.1 Billion (Increase)	Moderately Important.Gains in non-revolving credit(auto and home loans) has been anemic and is reflective of pockets of market weakness.

 

What Does the End of Quantitative Easing (QE) Mean? This past week, the Federal Reserve announced it would cease using new money to purchase longer-term Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This has lead many market watchers to believe interest rates will start to rise. After all, reduced Fed demand will lead to higher yields. It's not quite that simple. For one, the Fed will continue to reinvest the proceeds of maturing notes, bonds, and MBS into new notes, bonds, and MBS. The Fed has also said that it won't allow its portfolio of these holdings, which exceeds $4 trillion, to shrink until it starts raising short-term rates. This isn't expected to occur until the second-half of 2015 at the earliest. In addition, banks are picking up the slack in demand. Recent rules approved by the Fed, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. leave banks about $100 billion short of the $2.5 trillion in easy-to-sell assets that they need to meet new liquidity standards. Treasury securities and MBS help banks meet the standards. At the same time, supply of Treasury securities is expected to drop. A falling fiscal deficit will result in less Treasury-debt issuance going forward. According to the CBO , the deficit for 2014 – for the fiscal year that ended on September 30 – was $486 billion, $194 billion less than the $680 billion deficit recorded in 2013. That’s the lowest deficit since 2007. In short, we don't expect a meaningful increase in mortgage rates for some time, possibly not until the second quarter of 2015. Article courtesy of Patti Wilson, American Momentum Bank.